[ANALYSIS] What will happen to US soldier held in North Korea?

This July 19, 2022, file photo shows the Joint Security Area of Panmunjeom inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas. An American soldier is now believed to be in North Korean custody after "willfully" crossing the inter-Korean border on Tuesday. AP-Yonhap

Pyongyang will likely deport him due to criminal charges: experts

By Jung Min-ho

An American soldier is now believed to be in North Korean custody after "willfully" crossing the inter-Korean border on Tuesday, creating a new problem that could further complicate Washington's efforts to deal with Pyongyang.

Asked about what will happen to Pvt. Travis King, analysts on North Korea and human rights experts said on Wednesday that he is likely to face deportation due to criminal charges pending in the U.S. and the little utility it can expect by holding him.

Before crossing the border during his Panmunjeom tour, King was reportedly released on July 10 from a South Korean prison where he had spent two months over assault charges. Further military disciplinary action awaited him in the United States.

"Given that his criminal charges have been reported widely by the media, he will likely face deportation," Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think tank, told The Korea Times.

"As a member of the U.S. Forces Korea, he might be able, and willing, to provide some information North Korean officials would find useful. Depending on the levels of his knowledge and cooperation, he could be detained there for a while, but probably not for too long."

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The fate of U.S. citizens detained in North Korea is not always clear or consistent. Some are released voluntarily, while others have been put behind bars over dubious offense charges.

North Korea generally does not welcome foreigners who have illegally entered the country, as King did, for any reason, according to Kim Duck-soo, deputy director of Citizens' Alliance for North Korean Human Rights, a rights advocacy group.

"In addition to that, his judicial proceedings may not be finished in the United States, which could ask North Korea to send him on that legal (extradition) ground," Kim said, adding that North Korea, which is notorious for abusing the same grounds to punish its citizen defectors, would not reject such demands outright.

But Washington would not make such a request if King insists on staying there, which is another complex issue, as it is almost impossible to tell whether he is speaking without duress while in North Korean captivity.

As long as his stay is voluntary, there is little Washington could do, said Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification think tank.

"Since he was not abducted, the U.S. cannot impose additional sanctions on the regime or even criticize it," Oh said. "He is now dependent on North Korea's leadership to decide if he can stay there."

Tourists visit a tourist center during a tour of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the two Koreas at Imjingak Peace Park in the border city of Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. AFP-Yonhap

The North Korean pretrial detention and investigation system is infamous for human rights violations. According to rights experts, torture and other forms of physical violation are not unusual in detention centers. But they said Western detainees, particularly Americans, are treated far better as they could be useful for political or diplomatic means. As well, there are concerns that they could speak after their release about the inhumane conditions they witnessed and experienced there, elevating negative perceptions of the reclusive state.

The incident involving King comes while relations between Washington and Pyongyang are at their lowest point in years as North Korea has ramped up its nuclear and missile programs.

Some observers worry that he could be used as a diplomatic bargaining chip in the North's attempt to advance its demands in possible negotiations with Washington and Seoul. However, those contacted by The Korea Times said its impact on the prospects of talks and agenda would be limited.

King is the first U.S. citizen to be detained in the North in nearly five years since Bruce Byron Lowrance, who was held for a month after illegally entering North Korea from China in 2018.

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