Russian expert says NK's 'byeongjin' policy is working
North Korea's "byeongjin" policy of simultaneously pursuing nuclear and economic development appears to be working despite a string of sanctions on the communist regime, a Russian expert claimed Thursday.
"Despite a decade of sanctions and related international steps, North Korea has succeeded in acquiring a significant new nuclear potential while still achieving modest economic growth," Georgy Toloraya, director of Korean Programs at the Institute of Economy at the Russian Academy of Science, said in an article in 38 North.
The North's per capita gross national product is estimated to be over $1,000 for the first time since the 1980s, with the average middle-class standard of living incomparably higher than in the 1980s, and rural residents are also faring better, he said.
"What are the sources of this growth? One explanation might be that less is now spent on the conventional military sector, while nuclear development at this stage is cheaper ?- it may only cost 2 to 3 percent of GNP, according to some estimates," he said.
He added that the "byeongjin policy" is more "economy friendly" than the "songun" or military-first policy that Kim's father and late leader, Kim Jong-un, pursued, the expert said.
The North's exports are also growing, Toloraya said.
"After temporarily abiding by recently-imposed UN sanctions, China appears to have returned to 'business as usual' by exploiting the U.N. resolution's 'humanitarian clause,' resulting in benefits to North Korean manufacturing," he said.
He said that sanctions alone won't be enough to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem.
"A restart of the diplomatic process ?- ideally in a multilateral format that would enable all interested actors to benefit ?- could at least bring about a freeze on further North Korean nuclear and missile development. Little hope is left for North Korean capitulation, and a new search for compromise should start ? the sooner, the better," Toloraya said. (Yonhap)
"Despite a decade of sanctions and related international steps, North Korea has succeeded in acquiring a significant new nuclear potential while still achieving modest economic growth," Georgy Toloraya, director of Korean Programs at the Institute of Economy at the Russian Academy of Science, said in an article in 38 North.
The North's per capita gross national product is estimated to be over $1,000 for the first time since the 1980s, with the average middle-class standard of living incomparably higher than in the 1980s, and rural residents are also faring better, he said.
"What are the sources of this growth? One explanation might be that less is now spent on the conventional military sector, while nuclear development at this stage is cheaper ?- it may only cost 2 to 3 percent of GNP, according to some estimates," he said.
He added that the "byeongjin policy" is more "economy friendly" than the "songun" or military-first policy that Kim's father and late leader, Kim Jong-un, pursued, the expert said.
The North's exports are also growing, Toloraya said.
"After temporarily abiding by recently-imposed UN sanctions, China appears to have returned to 'business as usual' by exploiting the U.N. resolution's 'humanitarian clause,' resulting in benefits to North Korean manufacturing," he said.
He said that sanctions alone won't be enough to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem.
"A restart of the diplomatic process ?- ideally in a multilateral format that would enable all interested actors to benefit ?- could at least bring about a freeze on further North Korean nuclear and missile development. Little hope is left for North Korean capitulation, and a new search for compromise should start ? the sooner, the better," Toloraya said. (Yonhap)
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