Lithium resource squeeze could put the brakes on decarbonization

As the EV revolution speeds up, and big battery projects ramp up to stabilize power grids running on intermittent renewables, global demand for lithium batteries will rise sixfold in the next 10 years. But can the world actually supply the materials?

There are many potential emerging alternatives to lithium batteries, but for the time being, lithium remains the best commercially available option for a wide range of use cases, and it's unclear what will rise to replace it, or when. We're already getting a small taste of a lithium squeeze, thanks to a freak heat wave that disrupted supply in China's Sichuan province last month.

A new report from EV supply chain market intelligence publisher Benchmark gives us a sense of what rising battery adoption means at the resources level. Even assuming the recycling of raw materials, the report suggests we'll need about 336 new average-sized mines by 2035.

That breaks down into around 59 new lithium mines producing an average of 45,000 tonnes, 38 new cobalt mines producing 5,000 tonnes, 72 new nickel mines producing around 42,500 tonnes, 97 new natural flake graphite mines producing around 56,000 tonnes a year, and 54 new synthetic graphite plants producing an average of 57,000 tonnes each per year.

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